JJP’s Beating The Spread - NFL WK10


Your Week 10 Guide to Beating the Spread.


I’m not a professional and I don’t claim to be.  Fact is, I’ll never put in the time and effort to try and make a career out of professional gambling.  I do however, play the books often enough to know a few things about the “hobby”.  Whether it be in Vegas or online books, I’ve wagered money on professional sports for about 12 years.  Through the years I’ve learned 3 important things.  1) NEVER bet with your heart 2) NEVER bet more than you can afford and 3) NEVER chase the dollars you have lost.  With these things in mind, let’s dig into this weeks best match ups to play from my perspective.

*Lines may differ at time of bet and by book


Last week - 1-2 (Documented on twitter)

YTD - 7-8



Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears

11/10 1:00pm ET

Spread: PICK

Division rival game, yes please!  Last time we saw Megatron and Stafford on the field together, they were orchestrating an unlikely come from behind win against the Cowboys.  As for the Bears, Josh McCown was the model of consistency in a win over the Aaron Rodger-less Packers.  So, what do we do.  Jay Cutler is back in the saddle and the bears look to improve their mid-season form, while the high-flying Lions are trying to prove they are for real.  For no rhyme or reason, I think the Bears are the better team and getting Detroit at home without having to lay points sets up nicely.  I think the public is keeping the game at a pick after that DET/DAL game.

JJP’s Pick - Bears PICK


 Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers

11/10 1:00pm ET

Spread: Packers  -1

7 TD passes later, Nick Foles and the Eagles to face the Packers.  Positive for the Pack, they get Matthews back this week.  The defense in GB hasn’t lived up to the standard that lies before them, however there is always time for a turn around. The Eagles on the other end found a way to move the ball in Oakland, but is that the new norm or an anomaly?  I’d say the latter.  Seneca Wallace isn’t as bad as he looked last Monday night and with a week of practice with the 1′s, I’d bet it’s safe to assume he looks better.  I mean, that’s what we’re doing right?

JJP’s Pick - Packers -1


Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints

11/10 8:30pm EST

O/U: 54

On the side, I think the Cowboys can cover the 6.5, but not enough to bet it.  I do however find value in the total set on this game.  At a glance, the 54 seems easily attainable, but a deeper look gives pause to that thought.  The Cowboys, since facing the Broncos have struggled to move the ball for drives at a time.  The Saints defense is not the joke it was before and with Rob Ryan getting a chance at the team that fired him, I expect to see Romo throwing a lot of balls out-of-bounds.  On the Saints side, yes they score, but even at home, they aren’t as smooth as they will be.  Sproles may or may not play, Graham is still a little hobbled (Even if he’s still the best) and the Cowboys get Ware back.  This game screams bet the over, which most of the public is doing, but a wiser mind takes the roll and hits the under 54.

JJP’s Pick - Under 54


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Follow Joshua Perry on Twitter @JoshuaPerry84

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(Photo Credit: Getty)

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